After an election cycle unlike any other, we’re beginning the process of winding down our work and want to take a moment to highlight the impact our efforts have had.

In the 2020 cycle, Hawkfish bought more than $150 million in media on behalf of our clients, created and trafficked nearly 200,000 ad variations, and generated more than 9 billion impressions — that’s ‘billion’ with a B!

Hawkfish pursued this mission with some of the smartest folks in political tech — an incredibly talented team that used their diverse experiences to make an impact on the most important election of…

By the Hawkfish Tech Team

Photo by David Clode on Unsplash

Hawkfish was created to help our clients’ efforts to defeat Donald Trump and push forward progressive values. From building cutting-edge ad data technology to innovative content strategy and creative production, our work proved to be a pivotal part of Democrats’ success in 2020. While Hawkfish won’t continue, we want to share an overview of some of the tech accomplishments, in the hopes that what we’ve learned can be leveraged for future election cycles.

Post-primaries, we successfully supported 27 clients, ran approximately $20 million worth of media across 11 platforms, and developed more than 3,000 pieces…

Donald Trump was “deplatformed,” but his message is still able to reach millions.

Analysis: James Owens; writing by Stephen Levinson; editing by Charlotte Platt; data visualization by Alessia García.

This post was adapted from our More Data newsletter, a regular update on the tactics and trends shaping the political landscape, authored by Hawkfish’s James Owens. Sign up for More Data here.

People on their phones. Photo by camilo jimenez on Unsplash.
Photo by camilo jimenez on Unsplash

Donald Trump left the White House for the final time last Wednesday. But in many ways, it felt as if his tumultuous term ended two weeks earlier with his banishment from Twitter, Facebook and other major social media platforms.

Hawkfish Readied the Public for Trump’s Attempted Steal

By Hawkfish

Red Mirage research and analysis by Dr. Ellen Konar and Joe Wlos
Data visualizations by Joe Wlos

[Photo: Tia Dufour/The White House/Flickr; Clker-Free-Vector-Images/Pixabay]

President Trump’s substantial lead in votes counted on election night — and his willingness to use that lead to falsely claim victory — did not surprise the American public, thanks in part to Hawkfish.

By late August, Hawkfish researchers had quantified a likely Trump election-night lead in key states — based on higher rates of in-person voting by Republicans — which would fade as states counted mail-in ballots with greater support for Biden…

By the Socio-Economic Research & Tech Team

Methodology: Analysis of Georgia Secretary of State data

Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash

Main Points:

  • While only a minuscule percentage of Georgia ballots were either rejected or designated as “spoiled” in the general election, if the upcoming Senate runoffs are as close as anticipated, deficient ballots could be the difference between victory and defeat.
  • In the general election, younger Georgians and people of color were overrepresented among voters who cast deficient ballots and those who did not cure their ballots.
  • Only 0.19% of vote-by-mail ballots submitted in the Senate runoff election thus far have been rejected or marked…

By the Socio-Economic Research & Tech Team; editing: Jim Flood.

Methodology: Analysis of Georgia Secretary of State data

Photo by Arnaud Jaegers on Unsplash

With less than three weeks until Election Day, here’s the current state of the race of the Georgia Senate runoffs. Runoff data is through Tuesday, December 15.

Main Points:

  • Thus far, “runoff dropoff” has not occurred. The number of early votes cast in the runoff represents 96% of early votes cast in the general election at the same point in time. …

Turnout by younger voters lags in Florida

Analysis: Early Vote Team; writing by Jim Flood; editing by Karen Wickre

Photo by Phillip Goldsberry on Unsplash

Turnout by younger voters may be the key to a Biden victory, particularly in swing states like Florida. As a January 2019 Pew Research study reports, Generation Z and Millennials — the two youngest generations eligible to vote — tend to have views on the environment, LGBTQ rights, and racial justice that align more closely with Democrats than Republicans.

With early voting numbers breaking records across the country, the sheer number of Gen Z and Millennial voters has risen substantially from…

Democrats, take note: Vets are not a unified bloc.

Research by Hawkfish Research, and Alexander Starr. Writing by Jim Flood.

Photo by Israel Palacio on Unsplash

Donald Trump’s deficits in national and swing-state polls have grown as he’s lost support among key demographic groups, most notably senior citizens and suburban women. Another group with the power to move the needle on November 3 is America’s veterans. In 2016, 60% of veterans who voted chose Trump, according to exit polls. Based on our recent research, the president can’t count on that level of support this time.

Last month, we collaborated with Avalanche Insights to understand where veterans…

Modeling early voting patterns can tell us a lot about a battleground state.

Analysis: Alex Frieden & Mike McDonough; writing by Charlotte Platt; editing by Karen Wickre.

Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash

Once again, Republicans and Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to win Florida’s 29 electoral votes. Many may remember the lack of a decisive result during the Bush-Gore race in 2000; this year Trump may be eager to claim victory before hundreds of thousands of Florida’s mail-in votes have been counted. …

U.S. college and university students voting in swing states could yield a big return for Biden.

By Delilah Kutler; editing: Karen Wickre.

Photo by Vasily Koloda on Unsplash

Gen Z (born 1996–2015) may hold the key to the White House, but not because they can learn a TikTok dance in under a minute. The advantage Gen Z voters hold this year is their ability to choose where to vote.

There are about 24 million eligible Gen Z voters, representing one in ten eligible voters this election cycle. A May 2020 Pew Research study described Gen Zers as “progressive and pro-government,” with a negative view of nationalism.


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